Ukrainian journalist Vitaliy Portnikov examines the response of Russian leadership to former US President Donald Trump's ultimatum, which gave Russia and its energy partners 10 days to accept certain conditions, and how this deadline might influence the course of the war in Ukraine.
According to Reuters sources, Vladimir Putin prioritizes military objectives in Ukraine over his relations with the United States. The Russian General Staff has reportedly assured Putin that the Ukrainian front could collapse within months, potentially enabling Russia to capture all of the annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, Portnikov notes these statements may be part of an information campaign coordinated with the Kremlin and the FSB.
Portnikov argues that obtaining control over these regions is just one phase in the Kremlin's broader plan to occupy all of eastern and southern Ukraine or to turn the remainder into a puppet state under Moscow's control. Putin is unlikely to enter real negotiations even after gaining territory, instead proposing terms unacceptable to the West and Kyiv, thus prolonging the conflict.
He suggests that, regardless of the situation on the ground, Putin will continue his aggression as long as Russia retains the resources to do so. The main factor that could stop the war would be depriving Russia of the financial means to sustain it, for example by falling oil prices or loss of buyers like China and India. There is also a risk the conflict could escalate further, possibly turning into a larger confrontation involving the West.
In conclusion, Portnikov stresses that Trump's ultimatums are unlikely to alter Putin's strategic goals, and that only the depletion of Russia's resources could influence the war's duration.
