US President Donald Trump has shortened the timeline for his ultimatum to Russia regarding stopping the war against Ukraine. He hopes this move will prompt a response from Vladimir Putin and his allies, primarily through the threat of new sanctions affecting not only Russia, but also key partners like China and India involved in Russian energy trade.
Recent contacts between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky show increased US efforts to coordinate actions with Western and front-line states opposing Russian aggression. Key issues include Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and the urgent need to bolster Ukrainian air defense, specifically through modern systems supplied by the US.
Trump is focusing pressure especially on India, which has dramatically increased its purchases of Russian oil during the war. For India, a partnership with the US offers strategic leverage in its rivalry with China. Trump openly urges Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reduce Russian oil imports, directly linking this to continued US-Indian strategic cooperation.
Meanwhile, Brazil is seen seeking its own policy on Russian energy purchases amid internal political turmoil, which also draws the attention and approval of US sanction policy.
China maintains a decidedly hardline stance: Beijing ignores US pressure and continues to support Russia, including buying significant volumes of Russian energy.
The Russian response to Trump's ultimatum has so far been dismissive. Some “informed sources” hint at the prospect of a temporary “air ceasefire” during upcoming US-Russia special envoy consultations. Analysts, however, view such proposals as little more than tactical attempts to buy time before renewed winter attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
In parallel, scenarios are emerging for a potential division in global trade and the economic isolation of Russia and China. The main question remains whether Trump’s pressure on India and China will reshape the international balance and affect the war’s course. Against this backdrop, Ukraine anticipates further Western decisions on security and economic support, preparing for a prolonged struggle.
