In 2022, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine included attacks launched from Belarus. Experts consider Alexander Lukashenko equally responsible for the war alongside Vladimir Putin, highlighting his close alliance with Russia.
The start of the invasion brought increased attention to military exercises in Belarus, particularly the "Zapad" maneuvers and the recent law allowing Lukashenko to declare a state of war.
Bilateral Belarusian support for Ukraine has deep roots: since 2014–2015, Belarusian volunteer groups have participated in Ukraine's Anti-Terrorist Operation. Notable units, such as the Kalinouski Regiment and the Belarusian Volunteer Corps, involved over a thousand members, with around 70 killed in action.
After the 2020 Belarusian protests, many Belarusians emigrated to Ukraine. Despite political tensions and nonrecognition of Lukashenko, economic cooperation continued up to 2021, leading to mutual accusations in politics and trade.
The end of 2021 saw a migration crisis at Belarus’ EU borders, drawing international attention. In January 2022, joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises were announced, which preceded the invasion.
Despite repeated assurances by Belarusian authorities of no imminent aggression, Russian forces invaded Ukraine from Belarus in February 2022. Since then, Belarus has been the launch point for several missile attacks on Ukraine.
Subsequent developments included the temporary presence of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus, debates about nuclear weapons, and Russia providing Belarus with missile systems. Belarus' military-industrial complex remains state-controlled and integrated with Russian projects, raising additional security concerns for the region.
The situation remains tense, and Lukashenko's political fate is closely tied to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
