The ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Russia has intensified against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, leading to shifts in regional policy and the balance of power in the Caucasus. The Kremlin is losing influence over Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan due to the geopolitical aftermath of its aggression in Ukraine and new approaches by Azerbaijan's leadership in foreign policy and energy strategy.
Recent US mediation helped to broker a fundamental peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan. However, Moscow is trying to maintain its position through hybrid tactics, attacking Azerbaijani oil and gas infrastructure on Ukrainian territory.
Azerbaijan aims to seize new opportunities for exporting energy to the EU, reducing the region's dependence on Russian resources. In addition, Baku is increasing humanitarian support to Ukraine: total aid now exceeds $40 million, with recent additional funds allocated for Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
At the same time, Azerbaijan is reconsidering its arms embargo on Ukraine, with reports of possible production of artillery shells for Ukrainian needs. Such actions reflect major changes in bilateral relations amid growing anti-Moscow sentiment.
Thus, the shift in power in the Caucasus, energy competition, and Kremlin pressure are shaping a new reality for the region. The future of these relations depends on Azerbaijan's ability to leverage its partnerships and counter Russia's hybrid threats.
