Barclays economists analyzed US trade data and found that the real burden on importers has been lower than previously thought. Instead of the expected 12%, the average tariff in May was around 9%. This is because more than half of all imports were exempt from tariffs, and US companies reduced purchases from high-tariff countries, especially China.
Similar conclusions were made by JP Morgan analysts. In June, businesses effectively paid less in tariffs by switching to suppliers from countries with lower tariffs or to domestic manufacturers. This helped prevent inflation from rising as much as experts had forecast. At the same time, tariff increases retain political undertones, with the Donald Trump administration emphasizing that tariffs had no effect on inflation.
Certain imported categories, like furniture, became significantly more expensive, but overall price increases were less dramatic. Exemptions for specific goods and countries, reduced tariffs for partially US-made goods, and stockpiling before new rules took effect softened the impact. However, further effects may worsen in the second half as exemptions could end and tariffs rise again.
Business adaptation has been temporary—once inventories are depleted, companies are expected to pass on tariff costs to consumers, resulting in gradual price hikes. Political uncertainty around US trade decisions increases risks for investors and manufacturers unable to plan long-term.
In summary, the real impact of US tariff policy on inflation has been smaller than expected so far, but future changes could lead to more noticeable price increases and economic pressure.
