The Times highlights four security guarantee options for Ukraine currently being considered by Western countries, in hopes of ending or at least suspending the Russia-Ukraine war.
The first option involves deploying British and French military contingents to train Ukrainian forces in the west of the country, with air and naval support as well as intelligence backing from the United States, but without any form of US ground troop presence. The second option is to provide aerial protection, patrolling, drone usage, and potentially establish a no-fly zone if violated, alongside supplying additional arms to Ukraine.
The third option contemplates extending NATO's Article 5 protections to Ukraine, which would entail a collective response to further Russian attacks, but without Ukraine's formal accession to NATO. This would require an international agreement and subsequent national ratifications. The fourth approach proposes a new security alliance for Ukraine, similar to US alliances with Japan or South Korea, featuring American defense guarantees, possible base deployments, and official Russian recognition of such agreements.
Each scenario faces resistance from Moscow, which deems NATO presence a direct threat and insists on involving China or even Russia itself in any security architecture. Western countries, meanwhile, remain cautious about major moves that could draw them into direct conflict with Russia and avoid hard commitments regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.
Vitaliy Portnikov stresses that these security guarantee discussions are mostly theoretical as long as Russia remains unyielding and aggressive. He raises questions about why the West does not implement stronger guarantees now, and examines how Donald Trump's rhetoric about World War III influences these debates about US involvement in the event of renewed Russian aggression.
Portnikov concludes that, for now, Ukraine's security guarantee options are largely political and theoretical, but their relevance could increase if Russia’s military power is exhausted. Ultimately, Ukraine could become a regional security provider for neighboring countries in Europe if it can repel Russian aggression.
