On August 21, economist Oleh Penzen spoke with the Veza Center for Civic Analytics about Ukraine’s security guarantees, ongoing attacks on Russian oil refineries, and the state of the Russian economy.
The expert noted that security guarantees remain unresolved, likening promises without allied forces on Ukrainian soil to the ineffective Budapest Memorandum. He emphasized the importance of real security mechanisms, echoing concerns voiced by European politicians.
The discussion also covered American investments in Ukraine and whether they can serve as true security guarantees. Despite a signed investment fund agreement, US protection so far appears only declarative.
The conversation included Russia’s targeted attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure, including oil depots and gas storage, which threaten energy independence ahead of the heating season.
The experts also assessed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refining, which have caused domestic fuel shortages in Russia without significantly affecting crude exports due to sanctions. These operations may, however, destabilize Russia’s internal logistics and economy.
Russia’s budget deficit is worsening and now reaches 5 trillion rubles, with reduced resources remaining in the National Wealth Fund. The likelihood of Russia seeking a stabilization loan from China—possibly decisive for financing the war—was discussed. Should China refuse, Russia may face a financial crisis as early as this fall.
