In his discussion, Vitaliy Portnikov examines the absence of real prospects for resolving the Russia-Ukraine war. He notes that despite Donald Trump's ultimatums and periodic statements about possible trilateral or bilateral talks, there has been no actual progress. No meetings are being prepared, and there are no negotiations between either Ukraine and Russia or the US and Russia.
Portnikov stresses that neither before nor after Trump’s election has any US president had a “magic wand” to influence Moscow and force Putin to end the war. According to the author, Trump’s goal was to propose a ceasefire in exchange for lifting sanctions, gaining political benefits without addressing the real causes of the war.
During his presidency, Trump did not introduce new sanctions against Russia, effectively shielding Putin from increased pressure. Secondary sanctions have only affected some countries; for example, tariffs on Russian oil have been imposed on India, but this has led India to increase its purchases of Russian energy resources. China and Turkey also avoid US pressure for economic or political reasons.
Trump often shifts the responsibility for the failure of the peace process onto Ukraine or Europe, avoiding real pressure on Russia. European countries remain cautious about radical sanctions to avoid economic destabilization and demand mutual actions with the US, considering trade volumes with China and India.
Portnikov emphasizes that even if new sanctions are imposed, it is unlikely they will end the war, as India and China are interested in continuing cooperation with Russia. He also highlights that China is the main, albeit indirect, ally of Russia in this war, as the conflict weakens the West.
The conclusion is that there are no preconditions for ending the war now; Ukraine must prepare for a long struggle, and support from the US and Europe is vital. He underlines that stopping the war is only possible by destroying Russia’s military-industrial potential. Also important are information pressure and keeping the responsibility for the war on Trump’s policies rather than on Ukraine or Europe.
In interaction with listeners, Portnikov addresses issues such as Europe’s gas dependence, migration policy, China’s stance on the war, and sanctions against India and China. He calls for a critical perspective on peace initiatives and recommends relying on a realistic scenario of a protracted war, where Ukraine’s survival will depend on continued support and strengthened capacities.
