Recent days have seen active discussions around the potential rapprochement between Europe and China amid shifting global politics. Speculation increased following statements by the German chancellor about new possible partnerships, though China was not directly mentioned. Some experts do not rule out ongoing interest in cooperation with Russia, remembering previous ties during Merkel’s period.
The key question is whether Europe truly sees China as a strategic alternative to the US, as Washington faces uncertainty ahead of elections and displays signs of fatigue toward the Euro-Atlantic partnership. A major factor is Europe's desire to avoid new dependencies—be it on the US, China, or Russia. Europe has significant potential, technology, and finances, and, as pointed out, is not lagging in the development of artificial intelligence or advanced equipment.
Cooperation with China is likely to take the form of mutually beneficial and equal relations. Europe may agree to a multipolar world while retaining its own subjectivity. For China, the European market remains key, and new trade and economic agreements may partly satisfy the needs of both sides.
A crucial aspect of this dialogue is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. China provides limited support to Russia, opening financing and buying Russian bonds. This approach may strengthen China’s influence but also creates new challenges for Ukraine.
One strategic idea discussed is freezing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which could serve as a “stamp” for a new Europe-China agreement and a formal demonstration of an intent to reduce confrontation. However, the issue for Ukraine is securing safety guarantees, economic support, and post-war recovery prospects.
Experts note China's main interest is economic expansion, and Ukraine may eventually become the recipient of Chinese credit and investment offers. Simultaneously, trade between Europe and the US will likely remain crucial, despite political divergence. The future of these processes depends on US election outcomes and the real capacity of European countries to consolidate for negotiations with China and secure their independence.
