Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that repeated violations of Poland’s airspace by Russian drones were not accidental. Debris from drones has been found in various regions of Poland, and there is evidence indicating that some drones entered from Belarus, not Ukraine.
Minsk has attempted to justify itself, claiming this is the result of a radio game between Russia and Ukraine. However, Polish authorities view these actions as a deliberate provocation. Moscow denies involvement, with its diplomat in Poland stating that no Russian drones or missiles were present on Polish soil.
Poland and other NATO countries believe these acts are intentional and consider the necessity of collective defense, including possible coordination with Ukraine to destroy Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace using Polish and NATO air defense. However, not all alliance members are expected to support such actions.
While some leaders remain cautious, others highlight the threat similar incidents pose to regional security, especially in NATO’s border areas. Meanwhile, Russia has also launched drones toward Moldova, increasing pressure on NATO’s air defenses.
If the alliance’s response is insufficient, Russian provocations are likely to continue. Experts note parallels with Russia’s approach in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014, when Moscow denied responsibility. Now, a similar tactic appears to be used regarding Poland.
The outcome may depend on U.S. politics, particularly the talks between Donald Trump and his Polish counterpart. So far, Trump’s reaction has simply been an expression of surprise on social media. It remains to be seen whether NATO and the United States can ensure collective security in response to these new challenges.
