Following a meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and US presidential envoy John Coyle in Minsk, a letter from Donald Trump to the Belarusian president was released. In it, Trump expressed respect and noted that he and his wife would pray for Lukashenko’s health, reflecting Trump’s sympathies for authoritarian leaders.
The talks led to significant outcomes — Lukashenko freed 52 political prisoners, including well-known regime opponents and foreign nationals. In return, the US removed sanctions from the Belarusian airline Belavia.
Such moves benefit not only Lukashenko but also Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Belarus is closely aligned with Moscow. At the same time, John Coyle emphasized that the US was interested in normalizing relations with Belarus and hoped for the release of all political prisoners. However, no demands were made regarding democratization or reducing Russia’s military presence in Belarus.
It appears Trump’s aim is to use Belarus as a legitimate channel for relations with Russia, given the strained dialogue between Washington and Moscow over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Lifting sanctions allows Belavia to consider resuming direct flights to the US, which interests both Russian businessmen and officials, with Belavia possibly acting as a legal carrier to the US via Minsk, avoiding restrictions.
Under this model, Putin avoids new sanctions, and Lukashenko bargains for more concessions by freeing select opposition members. Regime leaders benefit, while no fundamental changes occur for political prisoners or stability in the region.
Among those freed from Belarusian prisons were prominent activists, but opposition leader Mikalai Statkevich refused to leave the country. Ultimately, these exchanges look like political bargaining rather than effective destabilization of the authoritarian regime.
