On June 21, an unexpected diplomatic maneuver took place between Donald Trump's administration and Belarus. Trump pledged to lift sanctions on the airline Belavia and restore the US embassy in Belarus in exchange for the release of 52 political prisoners. Despite this, about 2,000 people, including opposition members, remain imprisoned in Belarus.
This action followed high-level contacts between the US and the Lukashenko regime—a meeting in June between special envoy Kitkeloh and Lukashenko, and on August 15, the first phone call in 31 years between a sitting US President and the Belarusian leader. Trump publicly thanked Lukashenko, despite Western reluctance to recognize the results of the 2020 Belarusian elections. These moves have raised concerns in the EU and neighboring countries, which support the continuation of sanctions pressure.
In addition to the sanctions deal, Belarus agreed to discuss a larger-scale agreement. The US diplomatic focus appears to be shifting from ideological issues to pragmatic decisions, emphasizing competition with other major powers. However, critics argue these deals fail to address genuine democratization in Belarus and may reinforce its dependence on Moscow and China.
Belarus' economic situation remains difficult. Western sanctions have limited key sectors, led to inflation, and increased reliance on Russian and Chinese markets. Moscow now controls up to 60% of Belarusian trade. Despite his harsh rhetoric, Lukashenko's government seeks sanction relief to ensure regime survival.
The EU maintains a strict stance, pointing to ongoing repression and refusing to relax sanctions. Poland and Lithuania warn of military threats from Belarus, while the "West 25" military exercises have raised concerns about a potential new offensive against Ukraine from Belarusian territory.
Experts note that the pragmatic strategy of the Trump administration risks overlooking significant security and democratic issues in the region.
