On October 9, a peace agreement was signed between Israel and Hamas to cease hostilities in Gaza and provide for a gradual Israeli military withdrawal from designated areas. The deal, brokered with international mediators in Qatar, also obliges Hamas to release hostages.
At the Veza Analytical Center, experts Valerii Kaluchok and Illia Neskhodovsky highlighted that the key factor behind the agreement was the significant reduction of financial support to Hamas from Iran, combined with international pressure and military strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This loss of external funding forced Hamas to negotiate, although the group’s ideological intransigence remains. Should new funding sources emerge, the agreement may quickly unravel.
Analysts emphasized that they do not expect major shifts in the region’s economic landscape. The most significant changes in the Persian Gulf’s oil and gas sector occurred earlier, influenced by US and Israeli actions targeting Iran. Even during the conflict, oil prices remained relatively stable, and crucial decisions were made before the peace deal.
The discussion also addressed Donald Trump’s political ambitions, as he seeks the Nobel Peace Prize ahead of the US elections. Experts noted that the peace deal is closely tied to Trump’s efforts to position himself as a peacemaker, though the outcome and the potential for increased US pressure on European partners remain uncertain.
Special attention was paid to Turkey’s changing role in energy transit; Turkey is modifying its gas export structure, offering Europe “alternative” energy routes and supporting a market redistribution amid the EU’s move away from Russian resources.
The main conclusion is that politics and economics are inseparable in today’s world. Rather than pursuing clear global ideals, players now engage in pragmatic multi-layered arrangements, maintaining the appearance of political change, yet preserving core economic relations.
