Today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to meet with US President Donald Trump following a series of loud statements and negotiations between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yesterday, Trump announced on social media that he had a productive conversation with Putin and revealed plans for upcoming meetings of high-level advisors, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the delegation. The meeting location is yet to be decided, but a summit between Putin and Trump may take place in Budapest to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
To fully analyze this new round of negotiations, it's important to revisit Trump's previous policy toward Ukraine and Russia. At the start of his second presidential term, Trump maintained a tough stance on Kyiv, which gradually softened under pressure from Ukrainian diplomats. However, subsequent negotiations with Moscow usually ended with no tangible results, despite repeated threats of sanctions and US ultimatums regarding the end of the war.
Of special note is the possible choice of Budapest as the meeting place—a symbolic city for Ukrainians due to the Budapest Memorandum. Hungary, not an ally of Ukraine, likely supports hosting the talks. Additionally, Putin's potential travel to an EU country under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court raises significant logistical and legal challenges.
The issue of supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons, particularly Tomahawk missiles, remains unresolved. Initially, Trump suggested the US might provide such aid, but later reversed his stance, citing the need for those weapons in the US itself.
Despite changing rhetoric and approaches, the main trend in US policy toward Ukraine remains: supporting Ukraine to ensure it doesn't lose the war, but not enough for outright victory. The previous Biden administration pursued a similar strategy.
Diplomatic efforts to encourage India to reduce Russian oil purchases stand out but are unlikely to have a quick impact on Russia's economic position.
Ultimately, experts predict another cycle of negotiations and time-wasting tactics from both Russia and the US, with limited practical results. The focus, they say, should remain on supporting Ukraine's defense forces, which is critical for the country's current and future security.
