After the failure of another truce attempt between Russia and Ukraine, experts highlight the lack of any formal commitments by either side. Russia claimed to have agreed to a ceasefire only at Donald Trump's request, a statement echoed by President Zelensky. At the same time, no official documents or guarantees were signed, making the alleged breach of agreements predictable since Russia did not provide clear promises.
According to the expert, Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure continued, as confirmed by Western press and the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy, despite public statements about restraint. The expert notes that these attacks do not fundamentally change Kyiv's negotiating position and that political statements remain a necessary part of diplomacy during wartime.
Russia's stance has been that negotiations are not linked to halting hostilities or shelling. The Ukrainian side, meanwhile, is preparing and shaping its own negotiating position, postponing meetings to strengthen its arguments.
A key condition for effective negotiations would be U.S. participation, as Russia is more likely to commit to obligations with America than with Ukraine directly. The lack of formal guarantees and continued hostilities suggest that a significant strengthening of Ukraine's negotiation power should not be expected.
Western leaders, including Mark Rutte and Kaja Kallas, have mentioned Ukraine's readiness to make tough decisions to halt the war, emphasizing the need for assurances if hostilities resume. However, concrete international agreements are still lacking, and the multi-level Western response plans referenced in the media remain unformalized concepts.
In conclusion, the expert advises Ukraine to use any pause in fighting to reform its army and defense industry, arguing that real security guarantees are still undefined and the main defense responsibility lies with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
