On March 25, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" hosted a discussion between Valeriy Klochok and political scientist Anton Kuchukhidze. The experts analyzed the current state of peace negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, and international partners.
The experts noted that Russia continues to insist on negotiations directly with the United States, often sidestepping Ukraine and the European Union. The Kremlin pushes for dividing spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, reflecting a Soviet-era approach to foreign policy. Ukraine’s president has stated there are currently no prospects for significant progress, as Russia shows no intention of ending the war.
Experts emphasized that the European Union is Russia's chief economic partner. EU sanctions have significant impact, and energy trade continues despite some restrictions. Ukraine's stance is that negotiations must involve not just the US and Russia, but also the EU, as its political and economic influence is crucial for any agreements.
The possibility of a four-party format (US, Ukraine, EU, Russia) is considered difficult but potentially effective. Europe could serve as a guarantor for implementing agreements, using economic sanctions as leverage. Meanwhile, Russia often questions the legitimacy of Ukraine’s president as a pretext to evade commitments.
The future of negotiations—even a temporary ceasefire—hinges on Europe’s active participation and its capacity to impact Russia. Elections in Ukraine are possible only after a stable ceasefire, and even then, Russia might refuse to recognize the results.
Overall, the experts believe that only by expanding the format and ensuring European economic involvement can there be real progress in negotiations to stop the war.
