On May 8, the Center for Public Energy “Vezha” held a discussion featuring Valeriy Klochok, Oleksiy Koshel, Oleksandr Antonyuk, and Petro Oleshchuk about the suspension of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process. Against the backdrop of Russia's official announcement to leave negotiations, the participants examined the core reasons behind this move, the US (especially the Trump administration) response, and possible regional consequences.
Speakers noted that the real negotiation process had essentially stopped months ago, with Russia's statement serving as a formal acknowledgement. A key theme was the role of the US: according to experts, the Trump administration failed to ensure enough leverage to enforce a ceasefire or pressure Ukraine to accept Russia's terms. The limited effectiveness and slow pace of European sanctions, as well as the influence of China and the potential for new negotiation formats, were also discussed.
The discussion highlighted uncertainty over future mediators. Internal dynamics in the Kremlin, Russia’s loss of influence over post-Soviet states, and increasing dependence on China were examined. Domestic Ukrainian challenges were raised too, including the adoption of aid-linked laws, optimization of defense programs, and the need for parliamentary reform.
In conclusion, the experts agreed that an active negotiation process is unlikely in the coming months. A swift peace remains improbable; the final format of any new talks or mediators is still an open question, with Ukraine itself—supported by external resources—likely to be the main force for pressure on Russia.
