Commenting on possible shifts among European countries in response to Donald Trump’s initiative on military aid for Ukraine, the expert identifies three main groups. The first includes countries like France and the Czech Republic, independently supporting Ukraine without U.S. programs, focusing on their own manufacturers and national interests.
The second group comprises countries with domestic political complexities, such as Austria. These governments support Ukraine but, due to significant opposition, channel funds through organizations like NATO instead of direct transfers to avoid internal disputes.
The third group includes those openly ready to fund aid. Meanwhile, many European capitals are preparing for August negotiations between the EU and U.S. about potential tariffs after a grace period ends, creating additional uncertainty. According to the expert, Europe’s response is slow, and unity around aid to Ukraine remains an issue.
It’s noted that Trump’s announcement did not come as a surprise; European leaders were aware of his stance, though the EU reacts sluggishly. The expert stresses the need for constant diplomatic engagement by Ukraine.
Regarding the Kremlin, the expert denies any rapid power changes but highlights significant shifts within Russia. There’s a reduction in opportunities for political elites due to financial constraints and massive nationalization. New legislation extends the statute of limitations for criminal cases, putting pressure on officials at all levels. The circle of “untouchables” has narrowed to Putin’s inner circle. While there’s no real transition yet, Russian elites are living in anticipation, fueling turbulence and uncertainty.
The referenced think-tank study analyzes this “logic of power transition” and the main influence groups in Russia, rather than predicting an imminent change in leadership.
