In his broadcast, Vitaly Portnikov provides a detailed analysis of the situation surrounding US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The key aspect was the shortening of the ultimatum, which triggered various reactions—from expectations of a change in US policy to accusations of manipulation benefiting Putin.
Portnikov stresses that little has changed at the front in 50 days. The war has shifted to a war of attrition, with technological changes such as the spread of drones creating new challenges for both sides. The American ultimatum is portrayed as a response to the futility of negotiations with Moscow following numerous phone conversations, each ending with renewed attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Trump tried to influence Putin through concessions, from diplomatic contacts to discussion of lifting sanctions and even debating Crimea’s status. However, the Kremlin’s response was non-constructive and the trust and goodwill credits ran out. Talks involving Turkey and Ukraine merely dragged out the process.
Portnikov highlights that Trump is now inclined to use pressure, supported by Western allies, with China playing a significant role by refusing to allow Russia's defeat and using the war as a tool in its global rivalry with the US. The issue of new military aid to Ukraine is now tied to internal US politics and economic competition with China.
According to Portnikov, Ukraine cannot avoid needing modern weaponry, and the effectiveness of sanctions depends mainly on decisions by countries buying Russian oil, such as India, Turkey, and Brazil. Nonetheless, the most influential player in this phase remains China.
Portnikov predicts further intensification in both the economic and political spheres, especially as the US seeks to limit financial flows to the Russian budget via oil exports, and asserts that direct US-China negotiations over this role are only a matter of time. The war is unlikely to end quickly, but pressure could create future conditions for resolution.
Answering viewers’ questions, Portnikov notes that Putin sees the war as a long-term strategy to exhaust Ukraine and does not expect a quick defeat. Trump, he argues, will be forced to increase military support, and the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will depend heavily on US decisions and cooperation with allies.
