August 8 has been marked by Donald Trump as a deadline for Vladimir Putin in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the main target of this statement seems to be not only Russia, but also China, as a signal regarding trade and energy relations. Trump announced the possible introduction of 100% tariffs on imports from countries supporting Russia, including Chinese oil.
China’s position is a key factor. Despite strong statements about its energy sovereignty, it is possible that China could enter into negotiations with the US to reduce Russian oil purchases. India has already partially moved in that direction. Meanwhile, Turkey and other countries that continue to import Russian energy are not critically important for Russia’s budget.
Russia’s reaction remains subdued, with only statements from officials and no signs of willingness for real ceasefire talks. The EU and the US have signed a framework trade agreement, which increases pressure on China.
Europe, despite uncertainty, continues supporting Ukraine, planning to further finance defense and purchase American weapons for Ukrainian needs. At the same time, there is still an “open window” for EU-China dialogue after a possible settlement between the US and China.
The situation around Trump’s deadline illustrates the Russia-Ukraine war being used as leverage on China and to shape world trade policy. While China could influence Russia’s position, it maintains a publicly independent stance. The issue’s resolution will depend on future agreements between the US, China, EU, and Russia.
