The Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" hosted a discussion with political scientist Petro Olishchuk about the prospects for future negotiations to halt the war between Ukraine and Russia. The conversation focused on a plan reportedly proposed by the US and published by a Polish portal, aimed at ending the war. The main points of the plan are: a ceasefire rather than a peace treaty, postponement of the territorial issue for 49 or 99 years, gradual lifting of most sanctions on Russia, no guarantees of NATO non-expansion, and no pledges to stop military support for Ukraine.
According to the political scientist, there is nothing sensational in these proposals, as similar formats have been discussed for years. Reaching a peace treaty at this stage is considered unrealistic, making a ceasefire the most likely scenario, much like longstanding armistices in countries such as South Korea and North Korea.
Issues related to territorial concessions, risks of lifting sanctions, and the possible resumption of energy imports from Russia were also addressed. Special attention was paid to how the Russian government might explain concessions to its own population, and whether there are sufficient resources to sustain Putin's regime in case of difficult compromises.
The experts concluded that, for now, any potential agreement would likely concern only the cessation of hostilities along current lines, while a comprehensive peace deal could remain the subject of negotiations for years to come.
