On August 8, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” held an interview with economist Oleh Penzen, discussing the economic context of the Russia-Ukraine war and prospects for its resolution.
The discussion highlighted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only military but deeply embedded in economic factors. President Putin has recently reached out to leaders of China, India, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, seeking diplomatic support amid Donald Trump’s peace efforts regarding Russia and Ukraine.
Special focus was placed on China’s influence, which, according to Penzen, could prove decisive for ending the war. China shapes the negotiation framework and drives compromises that may ultimately determine the region’s future. The conversation covered negotiations between Russia and India on oil supplies: Putin offered India a discount due to falling purchase volumes caused by sanctions and European demands on product origin.
It was noted that both India and China have independent strategies and that shifts in the oil market impact the overall conflict. Meanwhile, the US — and specifically Trump’s stance — remains crucial. While more tariffs have not been introduced against China or India, Trump’s policy in the election context is under the spotlight, as are pressures within his Republican base.
The interview addressed potential scenarios for negotiations and a possible ceasefire agreement which could reinforce the current status quo, including Russian control over Crimea and occupied parts of Donbas. Penzen stressed that the Ukrainian public will not accept territorial losses, and any ceasefire along current lines would simply freeze the conflict for now.
In conclusion, interviewees agreed that critical decisions on the war’s future are likely to be taken through dialogue not in Moscow, but between China and the United States.
