Recent days have revived discussion about a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict after Ukraine’s President stated he had received signals from Vladimir Putin suggesting a willingness to consider a ceasefire. For the first time in months, Russia has signaled readiness to discuss ending the fighting, which experts view as a cautious but positive development.
However, upon further clarification, it was indicated that significant concessions from Russia should not be expected at this stage, despite initial speculations about possible territorial exchanges. Russian leadership, according to analysts, is unlikely to return annexed regions to Ukraine, posing a major obstacle for future negotiations. Still, tactical withdrawals by Russia from some areas, excluding annexed territories, remain possible.
China has joined the discussion, with its representatives affirming support for dialogue between Washington and Moscow and stressing the need for European and Ukrainian participation in talks. While China does not play a decisive role in these negotiations, it closely monitors developments and may seek to influence discussions, particularly regarding differences among the US, EU, and Russia.
Further coordination between Russia and China is anticipated during official events in Beijing in early September. Experts note that a potential meeting between Putin and Trump could serve as a test for achieving compromises not only regarding Ukraine but also in the broader international context, including strategic security and arms control issues.
Currently, the most likely outcome discussed is a freezing of the conflict rather than a complete cessation of hostilities. However, a chance remains for a compromise, depending on the stances of the US, Russian, and Chinese leaders.
