On August 27, at the Veza Center for Public Analytics studio, economist Oleh Pendzin and Valeriy Klochok discussed the new US tariffs against India set at 50% and analyzed the broader geopolitical context. These tariffs exceed those imposed on China, yet experts believe their real effect on India is limited, since the country’s economy is focused on exports to the EU and cooperation with China.
The conversation highlighted that India is partly reducing its reliance on Russian oil, redirecting flows toward the European market, though continuing purchases for domestic needs. The EU’s 18th sanctions package bans sales of products made from Russian oil starting in 2026, exerting pressure on oil refining markets.
Special attention was given to China’s role as a major economic and political actor. October is expected to be a decisive month, as Beijing may support Russia financially—a development that could have significant repercussions for the balance of power. Meanwhile, the European Union is keen to end the war swiftly to safeguard its security and avoid escalation.
A key theme was the prospective emergence of a bipolar world order: the US, EU, and their allies potentially facing the BRICS bloc—China, India, Russia, and Brazil. Currently, Ukraine remains more an object than a subject in this global game. Nevertheless, experts note a growing tendency toward freezing the active fighting, which could become reality as early as this fall.
The discussion concluded by emphasizing the importance of factual explanations and avoiding unrealistic expectations. Decisions will ultimately depend on the actions and positions of the most influential international players.
