On September 23, political scientist Ihor Chalenko provided an analysis of the situation ahead of Moldova’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for next Sunday. The country is witnessing rising tensions and a series of significant developments.
On September 16, Moldova's electoral commission registered 21 participants: parties, blocs, and independent candidates. By September 19, the possibility of protests surfaced, with police deploying water cannons and armored vehicles as authorities feared provocations orchestrated by oligarch Ilan Shor, currently in Russia and allegedly directing activities remotely on behalf of the Kremlin.
On September 20, the opposition Patriotic Electoral Bloc accused the government of economic decline and excessive dependence on the EU. Igor Dodon, the leader of the Socialists, publicly criticized the government, while some protestors promised to maintain neutrality and friendship with Russia.
On September 22, law enforcement conducted 250 raids, detaining 74 people on conspiracy charges and seizing weapons. President Maia Sandu issued a statement accusing Russia of funding destabilization and stressed that Moldova is a common home that will not be surrendered to outside forces. She also warned of the risks to the region, particularly Odesa, Ukraine.
Polls show a significant share of undecided voters—over 30%. The Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) leads, but its support is declining amid economic difficulties and corruption scandals, with a considerable portion of citizens expressing Euroscepticism.
Tensions have been heightened by the September 22 arrests and the case of Russian oligarch Plahotniuc, whose extradition was recently blocked. The government faces a wave of disinformation and fake news about the president, spread by intermediaries in Transnistria and Russia and allegedly financed by these sources.
The Moldovan authorities respond with arrests and highlight a hybrid attack, while reports suggest Russia is investing hundreds of millions of euros to shape election outcomes. The Kremlin’s tactics rely on challenges to results if PAS wins, and calls for Sandu’s resignation if it loses. There are also efforts to recruit youth and criminal groups via oligarch Shor.
President Sandu has warned the nation about the threat of Moldova becoming a platform for destabilization in Odesa, calling on citizens not to give in to outside pressure. The situation remains extremely tense.
