This expert discussion explores why the European Union is not exerting significant pressure on China regarding the war in Ukraine, despite calls from the US and especially Donald Trump. It is noted that Europe is not a politically unified structure and lacks a common foreign policy: each country pursues its own national interests, evident in issues such as sanctions, economic cooperation with Russia, and relations with China.
An example is the reopening of the Poland-Belarus border for trains carrying Chinese goods after stabilization in the region, highlighting the importance of EU-China economic relations. While Europe, as a large market, technically has leverage over Beijing, its internal diversity prevents consolidated action.
The discussion also highlights the impact of Russian information campaigns in EU countries and funding of pro-Russian political forces, making it difficult to form a single European position. The democratic structure in Europe leads to complex political processes and frequent changes in power, which Russia exploits to interfere and promote its narratives.
The role of the US and specifically the Trump administration is addressed, with Trump shifting responsibility for prolonging the war onto Europe. Importantly, the current state of the EU is characterized by a lack of consensus on how to influence China regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.
The economic situation in Russia and Ukraine's macroeconomic challenges during wartime are also analyzed. Russia is seeking internal reserves and using a wave of business confiscations to cover its budget deficit, while Ukraine relies on Western financial support. Experts are skeptical about the possibility of quickly ending the war without a unified European front pressuring China and point to the risks resulting from disunited European security policy.
