On October 6, the Analytical Center’s studio hosted a discussion on the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war, diplomatic initiatives, and the influence of key international players. The studio guest was Ihor Chelenko, political scientist and head of the Analytical and Strategy Center.
Considerable attention was devoted to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement about possible resumption of talks in the coming months, citing some emerging positive trends. Positions among Turkish leaders, however, remain ambiguous: President Erdogan does not believe the war will end soon, even as Turkey continues to fulfill a mediating role between the West, Ukraine, and Russia, maintaining contact with European and American partners.
In negotiations, Ukraine insists on stabilizing the front line and rejects concessions on Donbas despite Russian pressure. Turkey, meanwhile, pursues its own interests, keeping business ties with Russia (particularly in energy), has not imposed sanctions, and continues efforts via informal mediators to shift the Russian stance as the US and Europe increase sanctions pressure.
The discussion noted that Donald Trump and the United States remain strategically important, but the former president has stepped back from direct involvement, now relying more on European and Turkish intermediaries. The formation of a conglomerate of mediators, including China’s future potential, was highlighted alongside security challenges to Europe from Russia’s hybrid tactics, such as drone attacks targeting infrastructure.
Experts note increased responses from EU and NATO countries, including military equipment deployments, air defense reinforcement, and security investments, though political unity within Europe remains elusive due to domestic political fluctuations. The European political landscape is highly variable, and Russian leaders have maintained a hardline stance.
Overall, the negotiation environment is complex, involving multiple international actors and generating conflicting forecasts about the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war.
