Ukraine is entering the fifth year of its full-scale war, and it has been 12 years since the conflict began in 2014. Most Ukrainians want the war to end and seek security guarantees. The plan recently published by the Financial Times introduces, for the first time, a concrete international response mechanism in case Russia violates the ceasefire. Ukraine, the US, the UK, France, and more than 30 partner countries are negotiating this plan.
The draft is based on three recent meetings: initial talks in December, where officials from the US, Ukraine, and Europe discussed response measures and a peace plan; on December 28, a discussion between Zelensky and Trump along with European partners; and on January 6, the signing of the Paris Declaration by 35 countries, which includes provisions for security guarantees and the possible deployment of multinational forces.
The plan has three escalation phases. First, a diplomatic warning and authorization for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to take necessary action. If hostilities continue, coalition forces led by the UK and France may provide air, maritime, and ground support as well as protection for military hubs in Ukraine. In case of a major attack, the US will participate mainly through intelligence and logistics support, rather than direct military involvement. Oversight will be carried out by a special commission led by the US, which will monitor peace conditions.
The plan sets a time limit for the guarantees (15 years proposed, Ukraine is seeking 30-50) and stipulates that response is not automatic as in NATO Article 5: measures are decided by the US President following consultations, and only in case of significant, deliberate, and prolonged violations.
The plan also allows Ukraine to maintain an 800,000-strong army during peacetime, with partial funding expected from Western partners. Additional economic support and investments for Ukraine's recovery are also mentioned. The control of territories like Donbas remains a point of negotiation, with any settlement subject to public approval.
Partner positions on troop deployment vary: the UK and France are open to limited involvement, Germany and Poland are more cautious, the US avoids direct commitments, and other countries express limited readiness. European allies highlight the importance of continued US intelligence and logistical support. Discussions continue over rules for use of force and troop placement.
The proposed mechanism is complex, with many conditions and risks for implementation. Its effectiveness will depend on allies’ willingness for coordinated response and decisiveness in case of future escalation. Ukraine continues to seek stronger guarantees and long-term support.
