Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has recently issued strong statements regarding Russia, particularly on the issue of Ukraine's occupied territories. This has sparked a sense of optimism among Ukrainians, who now see Aliyev as a potential ally in the fight for territorial integrity.
However, experts note that Aliyev’s approach is not entirely new. He has repeatedly refused to recognize Crimea as Russian and confirmed Azerbaijan’s support for Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. What’s changed is the openness and assertiveness of such statements amidst worsening Azerbaijan-Russia relations, especially after the downing of a plane and a series of arrests and killings involving members of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia.
A turning point was Azerbaijan’s unilateral withdrawal from the border delimitation commission with Armenia, doing so without Russian involvement. This was perceived by Moscow as a snub to Russia’s mediator role in the region. Baku is now confidently handling negotiations with Armenia without Russian oversight.
After the start of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine, Baku supported Kyiv with fuel supplies and other resources, all the while maintaining complex political and economic relations with Moscow, particularly regarding energy resources and the transit of gas and oil through Azerbaijan.
Tensions escalated further over arrests and detentions of Azerbaijanis in Russia, some of whom are influential business figures. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is actively reducing the Russian media presence and has detained and deported representatives of pro-Russian entities, indicating a move toward derussification.
Despite Aliyev's active media position, experts stress that his interests remain primarily Azerbaijani. The confrontation with Moscow continues on political and economic fronts, while Baku’s chief priority is to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus and bolster its position as a key player in Eurasian transit routes.
