Vitaliy Portnikov provided a detailed analysis of Putin’s comments made during a joint press conference with Lukashenko at the Valdai forum. These remarks were a direct response to Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum, delivered at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Putin continues to demand the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as a prerequisite for a cease-fire, without offering genuine compromises. Portnikov views this approach as a tactic for destabilizing Ukraine internally, rather than a proposal for true peace.
The discussion contrasts Putin’s and Trump’s strategies: Putin chooses to publicly ignore US ultimatums, responding only through subordinates. This, according to Portnikov, increases pressure on the US President and gives Russia a perceived diplomatic edge.
Portnikov notes Putin’s diplomatic advantage in hosting the return of US envoy Steve Wichoff to Moscow, signifying restored dialogue despite ongoing sanctions. However, meaningful sanctions, in Portnikov’s opinion, would only have an impact if they severely affect Russia’s budget.
The reactions of India, Brazil, and China to US sanctions on Russian oil are examined, along with the West’s long-term dilemma on how to pressure China.
The analysis highlights that Putin uses negotiations as a stalling tactic and maintains missile attacks and military pressure on Ukraine. Portnikov predicts that increased Western aid to Ukraine and tighter sanctions could only alter the conflict in the long run.
Diplomatic change in Russia, the expert suggests, is possible only with deep political transformation, which currently seems unlikely. Portnikov points out the stability of Putin’s regime and the near impossibility of reaching significant deals with the current Russian authorities.
The final section addresses the impact of information operations and stresses the need for Ukrainians to distrust unverified news, underlining the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ role as the main guarantor of sovereignty in current conditions.
