Last night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched attacks on two more Russian oil refineries, located in Krasnodar Krai and Samara Oblast. According to the General Staff, details on the outcomes are pending, but regular strikes on Russia’s oil processing sector are becoming a key factor in undermining the country's military capability and hastening the war's end.
Russia’s war effort relies heavily on oil exports and the products processed from oil. Selling crude, particularly to Global South countries, strengthens the Russian budget and allows President Putin to finance sustained aggression. Simultaneously, the Russian military is dependent on refined oil products for its operations.
Recently, Russia has lost up to 20% of its refining capacity due to repeated strikes. This has forced adjustments in logistics, most notably a growing export of crude oil to India, as more oil can no longer be processed domestically and must be sold at discounts.
International actors like China and India are currently unwilling to forgo Russian oil, but new economic pressures—including US tariffs—could make Indian authorities reconsider. Should China also be influenced, Russian exports could further decrease.
More attacks on refineries would be possible if Ukraine receives additional weaponry, potentially paralyzing up to a quarter of the sector. This is a strong argument in favor of maintaining the strike strategy.
Ukraine stresses to its allies that these attacks target the military-industrial complex, not civilian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Russia attacks Ukrainian energy, housing, and various critical economic sectors, aiming to devastate Ukraine’s viability.
Destroying Russian refining capacity undermines the aggressor’s military and endangers Russia’s economic stability. This serves as a crucial factor in preventing Russia from sustaining plans for a prolonged conflict.
