This article examines the potential for ending the war in Ukraine through a so-called 'Korean scenario', involving a cessation of active hostilities and a de facto division along the frontline without formal recognition of Russian-occupied territories. The expert notes that the idea of Ukraine’s partial NATO membership and dividing the country, similar to North and South Korea, was discussed by military and political figures in late 2023 and early 2024. Although these scenarios faced earlier criticism, President Zelensky has recently acknowledged that he does not rule out a 'Korean' option for ending the conflict.
The expert stresses that Ukraine's accession to NATO is highly unlikely in the near future due to opposition from key Alliance members. Therefore, alternative security and truce formats are being explored.
The discussion draws parallels with the post-war situation on the Korean Peninsula in the 1950s. According to the expert, the ceasefire decisions there were not made solely by the warring sides (North and South Korea), but largely by major global powers—the US, China, and the Soviet Union. He believes a similar scenario could occur in Ukraine, with the final resolution largely determined by Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. While Ukraine and Russia have agency, the main decisions will be imposed by larger actors.
The expert also addresses the potential role of third countries in peacekeeping. He suggests that any real military presence (for instance, by NATO forces) is unlikely to alter the security situation or affect combat dynamics. The most significant guarantee for Ukraine, he says, will remain the supply of weapons, intelligence, and assistance for developing its defense industry.
It is also emphasized that support from the US and EU—including air defense, logistics, and ammunition supplies—remains crucial for Ukraine’s resilience. The expert is convinced that the provision of armaments will be resolved positively for Ukraine, while any symbolic presence of military missions or limited contingents would not be a decisive factor for security.
