Recently, negotiations between the United States and Iran have begun, which could significantly influence the Middle East and global markets. Not long ago, the US leader set an ultimatum to Iran: agree to a truce within 48 hours or face strikes on critical infrastructure. Following this, rhetoric shifted with both sides reconsidering their positions.
The start of talks immediately affected the oil price, which dropped 10% from $112 to $96 per barrel as news of potential de-escalation emerged. Official Tehran initially denied the existence of negotiations, but Western media report the talks continue via Oman, Qatar, and Turkey.
The US demands full nuclear restraint from Iran: decommissioning nuclear facilities, zero uranium enrichment, abandoning the missile program, and ending support for proxy groups. Iran, meanwhile, demands security guarantees, reparations, and a share in key regional flows.
Lack of common agreements creates tension in the region. Israeli intelligence previously expected domestic unrest in Iran after strikes on infrastructure, but society has largely rallied around the government.
The next five days may be crucial for the region's future — either a peace agreement will be reached or the conflict will escalate. Iran warns it may mine the Strait of Hormuz in response to military intervention. Nuclear and missile program issues remain the main stumbling blocks.
