On March 24, at the Center for Civic Analytics "Vezha," Valerii Kolchuk hosted an expert discussion with Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center.
The discussion focused on the Hormuz Strait, a key transit point for about 20 million barrels of oil daily, mainly for Asia-Pacific markets. Omelchenko noted that a prolonged conflict may benefit Russia through higher oil prices, but real figures are lower than those cited in Western media. Iran, by controlling the strait, may also gain substantial revenue through fees from ships.
The conflict’s impact includes disrupted global oil flows, forcing Europe and Asia to compete for limited resources, raising prices. For the EU, this means higher costs and lower economic competitiveness. Iran and China maintain partner relations, allowing Chinese tankers to pass freely; this complicates matters for the West due to insurance risks.
China now holds the world’s largest oil reserves and aims to prevent US control over the region. Russia shares this interest. Saudi Arabia relies in part on a Red Sea pipeline to mitigate risks, but other Gulf states remain vulnerable to disruptions.
According to the expert, Europe is waiting to see the outcome of US political changes while continuing to reduce reliance on Russian energy. The official EU position remains focused on independence from Russian supplies.
There is also debate over the effectiveness of strikes on Russian oil refineries; Omelchenko suggests targeting export infrastructure to limit Russian export income.
In conclusion, the current energy crisis around the Hormuz Strait is a complex interplay of political, economic, and military interests among global powers.
